Stay or go? Identifying your tipping point.
Please excuse the American spelling of 'cancelled' in the image above. But likely all over the world countries will start to secure borders as war approaches and the window of opportunity to leave will be closed. Cancelled, canceled, Отменено or キャンセル, the message in many countries will be ominous. You might not be able to leave.
Nuclear war within the next 10 years is a real possibility. But with the current wars in Ukraine and Gaza dominating news coverage a world war involving the UK may well be much closer than we realise.
The key questions are:
1. What are the clues that nuclear war is inevitable?
2. Will you leave your home or stay?
3. If you stay, will you prepare to survive or decide to prepare for death?
4. If you leave, where will you go?
5. What are the immediate concerns of nuclear war?
6. What are the long term concerns of nuclear war?
Those questions I will attempt to answer below:
Inevitability
We have already had some clues:
a/ The US stating we are in a pre-war area
b/ Putin lowering the Russian nuclear threshold
c/ Baltic and Balkan countries plus Poland and Finland strengthening borders
d/ The secret sabotage war suspicions across Europe and beyond.
e/ The South Korean president panicking the population with a declaration of Martial Law
f/ The head of NATO (Mark Rutte) stating NATO needs to shift to a wartime mindset
Increased escalation as above will likely take place if war is imminent. Signs will likely be as follows:
Months away:
It is likely that increased domestic military activity will become apparent. News coverage will concentrate on battlefield escalations and increased tensions between world leaders. This will be a time where families should perhaps meet to discuss the possibility of war.
Weeks away:
Fighting between NATO and Russia on the ground. Possibly too in the Middle East and with China in the Pacific. At this point families will need to make the decision to 'stay or go' with the focus being on time and not leaving it too late. Passenger flights abroad may be cancelled or fully booked. Ticket prices extreme. The window to leave for safer lands abroad may be very slim.
Days away:
Evacuations from major population centres. Hospitals preparing for casualties. Panic buying in shops. Political leaders, royalty and people of significant importance moved from their usual residences. At this point it will likely be too late to move abroad. Domestic roads may become clogged. People will be panicking and police likely struggling with law and order. Military reservists called in to help. Hospitals preventing non-emergency submissions, appointments cancelled, hospital patients with non life threatening care sent home.
If you are prepped and well stocked you may need to protect it if word gets around that your are a 'prepper'. This is one of the reasons why stealthily increasing stocks and materials is prudent.
Leaving or staying
Only you can make that decision on what you feel is best for your family. Your options may run out very quickly. It is important as a family to have your own 'tipping point', the point where you feel nuclear war is inevitable. The safest place will be the southern hemisphere. You will need the money to relocate, even if only for a few weeks, and of course the time away from work and school. This needs planning financially and logistically. A war might seem like it is imminent but it could be pulled back from the brink or any exchange limited in amount of weapons used. Only you can decide what is best.
The decision not to prepare (preparing for death)
When discussing nuclear war a common statement heard is : "I don't want to live, and will just go outside to be vapourised." Fair enough. But there are some realities:
1. There might not be any warning an attack is imminent.
2. An EMP strike may destroy all communications and destroy electronics in your home and vehicles. Therefore, you may not be able to travel fast to the place you think the fireball will be.
3. The fireball of the atomic blast and therefore certainty of being vapourised will be a few miles diameter. You will need to find that fireball site to be sure of instantaneous death. It is unlikely you will know the exact fireball location unless you live in central London. The chances are that you will be outside the fireball range and instead suffer catastrophic burns, lacerations and/or fractures, as well as lethal doses of Gamma radiation. Likely too that without preparation your family will not be together, and will be at work, school etc.
4. Likely that if there is some sort of warning then the human need for survival will kick-in and a frantic search for shelter sought by the panicked masses.
5. You may have made a prior decision to commit suicide together, or hope the fireball kills you all instantly. When the warning comes this decision will become a reality and likely easier to say than do.
The chances of being amongst the few receiving instantaneous death is possible. But also likely that if you have not left the country or gone to a rural location that you will receive life threatening injuries instead of instant death, and will die over the next few hours, or days.
That is of course if you have not prepped. With preparations, planning, and a well rehearsed drill you may be able to survive and become part of the recovery effort.
The decision to survive
The more prepped you are in terms of planning, decision making, equipment, shelter, food and drink, medical needs, security and protection, communications and shelter, the more likely it is you will survive and cope with the realities of a post-war world.
If you have never seen the dramatised panic of the attack in the movie Threads it can be viewed here
The best chance you have to survive will be to leave the northern hemisphere for the southern hemisphere
But when do you go?
There will be a time before an attack when all passenger aircraft and shipping is halted and it becomes impossible to travel to the southern hemisphere. You will need to make a difficult decision before this happens, possibly one that affects your continued employment and the schooling of your children. Your home may also be at risk from looters should you leave it. There may be issues with home insurance if war does not happen and you arrive home to a damaged, looted property. These are all points to consider. Likewise leaving behind friends and extended family.
It's a risk. Stay or go.
Below is a checklist that could alert you when it is time to go. If the first 10 are ticked, then perhaps you need to start thinking about the decision before it is too late.
1. News coverage and political statements seem to indicate the war is escalating (your opinion of 'seem to')
2. Different weaponry is being used (official confirmation)
3. New countries are under attack (official confirmation)
4. Civilian centres of population are under attack (official confirmation)
5. Political leaders are using increasingly aggressive language (your opinion on what aggressive is)
6. Military activity appears to be increasing on the streets, at sea, or in the air (your opinion on 'appears to')
7. Politicians debate public defence requirements eg shelters, curfews, lockdowns etc (news coverage)
8. People start to talk about leaving or prepping (your local community and social media)
9. People start to protest about peace not war in increasing numbers (news coverage)
10. Southern hemisphere countries start to show concern about possible visitor influx (news coverage)
There may be a sudden escalation at some point that changes the perception of the public, and panic buying sets in. It may well be too late at this stage to get out of the country, with all transport fully booked or prices hugely inflated. And the possibility that all routes out and into the country are cancelled.
11. If you have managed to leave the country, you will have made an informed calculated decision for your survival. Do not return until the situation seems to improve. It may be days, weeks or months.
12. Further escalation may include more intense fighting and a NATO official announcement that NATO is at war. Likely at this point it will be virtually impossible to leave for overseas.
13. Government emergency announcements and preparations kick in. Martial Law may be introduced.
Likely at this point we are just days away from nuclear war. If you have not made arrangements to leave for a rural location then now would be the time. Don't forget that even in a rural location preparations need to be made for fallout protection and the aftermath.
14. There may only be a small window of time, perhaps just a few days, where you are allowed to travel to a rural location. Police and military resources will be stretched to the limit. There may be checkpoints and curfews. If you have decided to stay, then now is the time to build your shelter which hopefully you have prepared for well in advance. Government advice, if any, may follow the old 'Protect and Survive' shelter arrangements which will provide some protection. Or, you may decide to move to a location where the certainty of death is increased and you think instant vapourisation is likely. Official advice may well be to evacuate the cities. You may not have a choice and may be forced to do so.
15. Tactical nuclear weapons used on the battlefield. It may or may not be reported to avoid panic. Time to gather your family together, and/or send love to family scattered afar, if the news becomes official. Even if not official, news may well leak out. It may become difficult to determine fake news from reality. Sleeping inside your inner shelter may be prudent at this point, as will be practising 'the drill' of how to cope with the first 10-15 minutes should an attack alert be given, or the bomb explodes unexpectedly.
The first major sign will either be the alert (mobile maybe, old style siren possibly) or evidence of an EMP, which will likely be electronics ceasing to work or even sparking.
If you are not in your inner shelter, you should do it at this point.